Atlantic Hurricane Season Has Been Quiet:That's About to Change

Rosemary Collier
September 1, 2018

Satellite photos indicate quite a bit of shower and thundershower activity associated with this wave. Moisture from the tropical wave south of Florida will increase beginning tomorrow afternoon. The total rainfall for the year is at 33.23 inches — nearly half of that rain coming in August.

The predicted track would take the storm out over the central Atlantic Ocean, where it is expected to become a hurricane.

The first is a strong tropical wave that is located over western Africa.

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The National Hurricane Center continues to watch two areas in the tropics.

Tropical moisture will feed the development of showers and storms over parts of the Northern Plains, Lower Great Lakes, the mid-Atlantic and the OH and Tennessee valleys, as well as the Gulf Coast, on Saturday and Sunday.

The wave is moving west, northwest "with showers typical of September", said senior hurricane specialist Lixion Avila from the National Hurricane Center on Saturday morning. If this were to occur, it could limit swell potential for the East Coast (it would be far away), although not all models are suggesting the system will finish a complete recurvature through the Atlantic.

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Regardless of development, this system could produce heavy rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Florida into early next week.

Another complication is the tropical wave lingering in the Caribbean, which the National Hurricane Center said has less than a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical system.

SEE BELOW: See our 7-day forecast ▼. There will be significant time to closely monitor the behavior of these tropical weather systems. The upper level winds are not allowing it to organize, and those unfavorable winds are expected to continue until it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.

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Forecasters also will be watching for the storm-inciting Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, in the coming weeks as it makes its way into the Atlantic.

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