Moody's Cuts India's GDP Forecast To 7.3% From 7.5%

Charlene Craig
June 4, 2018

The figure surpassed China's growth rate of 6.8 percent in the January-March quarter, confirming India as the fastest growing major economy.

The significant expansion in GDP print has sprung a positive surprise by notching up an impressive growth of 7.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2017-18 and "marginally overshoots the advance estimates of GDP released earlier this year", said CII Director General Chandrajit Banerjee.

Union Finance Minister Piyush Goyal on Thursday said Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has been increasing continuously every quarter with growth of 7.7% in Q4 of 2017-18. Rapid growth in agriculture (4.5%), manufacturing (9.1%) and construction sectors (11.5%) contributed to the overall growth. That's a big jump from the revised 7% growth rate recorded the previous quarter.

The annual GDP growth for 2018-19 is projected at 7.4% by the participating economist; with a minimum and maximum range of 6.9% and 7.5% respectively.

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The OECD expects the world economy to grow by over 4 per cent over the next year on the back of low interest rates and other support from the governments.

The rate is higher against 5.6 percent, 6.3 percent and 7.0 percent respectively, in the first three quarters, Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2017-18.

The per capita income at current prices during 2017-18 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs 1,12,835 as compared to the estimates for the year 2016-17 of Rs 1,03,870 showing a rise of 8.6 percent. Faster growth in manufacturing, farm sector and construction helped this growth rate. His government launched a nationwide goods and services tax (GST) but its introduction was botched, almost scuttling India's growth prospects in the near term.

Mining and quarrying did not perform well in January-March as GVA of the segment grew at 2.7 per cent, down from 18.8 per cent in the year-ago period. It seems like we have moved beyond the teething troubles related to GST implementation. Capacity utilisation remains at 75 per cent, an indication that investment activity has picked up but not across sectors.

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Forecasts ranged from 6.9 to 7.7 percent.

India's recovery could be threatened by higher global crude oil prices, which this month hit $80 a barrel, their highest since 2014.

As per the report, India's current account deficit will increase.

Energy minister Dharmendra Pradhan told Saudi oil minister Khalid Al-Falih of his "concern about rising prices and its negative impact on consumers and the Indian economy", the Indian government said. However, rising oil prices and depreciating rupee remain key risks to watchout for in the near term.

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