Spotify thinks it'll have 208m users by the end of 2018

Pauline Obrien
April 8, 2018

"Shares of Spotify Technology SA are set to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange on April 3 in an unusual direct listing without traditional underwriters", Reuters notes. They also noted that those numbers matter as it affected its overstated monthly active premium users past year. Notably, Spotify anticipates that by the end of 2018 it will have anywhere from 92-96 million paid subscribers and upwards of 208 million active users.

This should take quarterly revenues 22-27 percent higher, to Euro 1.10-1.15 billion in Q1, as negative currency effects dampen the subscriber growth.

Having surpassed competitors such as Apple (Apple Music) and Alphabet (Google Play Music), Spotify hold a significant portion of the worldwide music streaming market, which could appeal to potential investors.

"Spotify has chosen a very unorthodox route to go public", he said.

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We define Premium Subscribers as users that have completed registration with Spotify and have activated a payment method for a premium service.

The company has today also issued guidance for the first quarter of 2018 (ie. the three months up to end of March) which you can see below. Well, the company expects to end the quarter with 168-171 million monthly active users, 28-31 percent increase from the same quarter a year ago.

The company said it expects the total number of users to increase to 170m from 157m a year ago.

That first figure compares favorably with the consensus No. 2-ranked on-demand subscription music platform Apple Music, which recently announced it had attracted 38 million paid subscribers in just three years of operation.

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As a result, Spotify reduced its monthly active user count of 2017 from 159 million to 157 million to account for the fraudulent users.

The "core to Spotify's pitch to investors" is an expectation for gross margins to rise from 21 percent to 25 percent over time, according to Recode.

With Spotify's IPO looming, the company today revealed a few interesting tidbits about its user base and financial prospects in the months ahead. However, this is well below its long-term target of 30-35%.

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